Is the region’s power grid ready for winter?

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PJM, the grid operator for 13 states including Pennsylvania, said that it and its members have sufficient resources to serve the 67 million people in its footprint this winter under expected conditions. 

However, it did caution that electricity demand continues to outpace the addition of new generating resources. 

PJM said it expects to have 180,800 MW of operational capacity to serve a forecasted peak electricity demand of approximately 145,700 MW, which would set a new record if reached.  

This expectation is based on PJM and the PJM resources continuing to take operational steps to improve generator performance during extreme winter conditions. 

PJM reached an all-time winter high of 143,700 MW on Jan. 22 of this year, 2,000 MW less than this winter’s forecast peak. Since then, PJM has added approximately 4,800 MW of new generation, most of it solar; that translates to approximately 1,000 MW more operational capacity for the 2025–2026 winter. 

PJM forecasts a generation reserve margin of 7,500 MW. This is down from 8,700 MW last year. That margin could shrink further if generators perform poorly. 

“The grid is set up to keep the power flowing reliably this winter under forecast conditions, but the tightening of our margins will begin to impact us in the next few years if it continues,” said Aftab Khan, executive vice president – Operations, Planning and Security. “PJM is working on multiple levels with all of our stakeholders to reverse this trend of demand growing faster than we can add generation.” 

To develop its winter scenario forecasts, PJM analyzes expected electricity demand, weather predictions and other factors. The National Weather Service predicts a slightly warmer winter for the Atlantic seaboard, with typical temperatures – but above-average precipitation – in PJM’s midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio. 

PJM also expects to remain reliable through several more extreme, but less likely, cold weather scenarios in which lower amounts of power generation are available and there is more demand within PJM or in external systems in need of PJM’s assistance for reliability. 

PJM said it will perform unannounced operational tests of generators that have not run for several weeks leading into the winter. These tests are performed in advance of extreme weather or high system demand to help ensure that these resources are fully functional and ready to operate when needed. 

PJM and ReliabilityFirst, which oversees reliability for NERC in much of the PJM footprint, will double the number of winter preparedness site visits to 30 generation facilities, ensuring that winterization best practices and lessons learned are shared systemwide. 

During the fall, PJM meets with regulators and neighboring system operators to review winter preparations. PJM also conducts weekly operational review meetings during the winter with major natural gas pipelines to coordinate operations serving the natural gas fleet. 

“Generator performance will be critical to maintaining reliability this winter,” said Michael Bryson, senior vice president of operations. “We are encouraged by the work we have seen by generation owners to fortify their units for winter operations, and we will continue to focus on communication and coordination that help us understand how PJM can help to mitigate gas scheduling challenges or other generator limitations.”