The good news: In central Pennsylvania, the median renter is not yet cost burdened when it comes to housing costs, as defined by the latest census data.
The bad news: That could change – in at least one county – if a shortfall in housing stock is not addressed. According to the 2017-2021 American Community Survey five-year estimates released last month, over 19 million U.S. renter households spent more than 30% of their income on housing costs in 2021. Households are considered cost burdened when they spend at least 30% of their income on rent, mortgage and other housing needs. The situation was especially dire in some of the nation’s largest counties where housing is more expensive, or in areas where incomes are low.
The ACS collects a variety of housing cost information for renters, including monthly rent and utility bills, and for homeowners, including mortgage principal and interest, real estate taxes, homeowner’s insurance, utilities, mobile home costs, second mortgage payments and condominium fees (if applicable).
In most of the U.S, homeowners had a lower median cost burden than renters.
The median housing cost ratio for renters in five counties in central Pennsylvania, the ACS reported, was 28% in Lancaster (estimated 60,449 occupied rental units); 28.9% in Lebanon (estimated 15,406 occupied rental units); 26.8% in Dauphin (estimated 40,459 occupied rental units); 29.2% in York (estimated 41,983 occupied rental units); and 26.6% in Cumberland (estimated 28,988 occupied rental units).
Greg Bardell, past president of the Lancaster County Association of Realtors, said homeowners tend to have less of a housing cost burden than renters because most of them took out fixed-rate mortgages with low interest rates.
It’s all a matter of supply and demand with rental units, he said. “Very, very few” rental properties in the county are sitting empty, as occupancy rates are in the high 90s.
A recent study by the Economic Development Company of Lancaster County’s Center for Regional Analysis should alarm county and municipal officials, Bardell said.
It concluded that current housing stock is not sufficient to meet the needs of the county’s population.
Two factors contribute to this:
· New housing is not compensating for existing stock that is aging.
· Existing and new housing is not keeping up with the county’s changing household composition.
There’s “not enough housing for people who live alone or households without children,” the report said. The “market is responding but there is still a significant shortfall of efficiency apartments and one-bedroom units.”
One reason people want to move to central Pennsylvania is because it is relatively affordable compared with denser metro areas, Bardell said. But “if we don’t get more housing stock,” that advantage is going to disappear.
“Officials have to make a decision,” he said. At this point, the cost to get approval for housing projects is very expensive, and “no one seems to be able to do anything about it.”
“It’s incredible what rental rates have risen to,” with some renters even offering to pay more because they’re desperate for housing, Bardell said.
“We could see ourselves above 30%” in median housing cost ratio, he explained, unless something changes.
Paula Wolf is a freelance writer