I can admit it when I'm wrong.
Back on Oct. 10, 2013, for instance, I opined that the marketplace glitches might be good for Obamacare, because once people actually saw what was being offered, they might be disappointed.
What actually happened was that the feds pulled the marketplace’s front end together and more people than predicted signed up, and then, several months in, reported being mostly happy with their plans.
That’s not to say there aren’t some disgruntled people out there who lost their plans or saw their prices rise or looked at the marketplace options and found none to their liking or within their financial reach. Such things did happen. But, after all, the average subsidy for those getting help with marketplace plans was a whopping 74 percent in Pa., and 47 percent of those getting help paid premiums of $50 a month or less, which even with a big deductible and narrow network looks pretty sweet ... particularly if all you happen to need to avail yourself of is the free preventive services.
And, of course, let us not forget that, thanks to generous exemptions, the number of people who will have to pay a fine this year for not being insured has dropped about 2 million from the original projections, to just 4 million of the roughly 30 million non-elderly uninsured in the U.S.
All in all, it adds up to a better run than I expected Obamacare to have this year. So there you have it: I was wrong, and the world did not end.
If that was gratifying for you, however, you might want to stop reading there. Because, looking forward, I have many “buts” to append. And I’m going to plunge into them headlong.
• If the back-end problems with the federal marketplace were ever resolved, I missed the jubilant memo.
• This report says fewer than 2 in 5 people are confident in the technical capabilities of the marketplaces; only 1 in 12 report lower monthly health care spending now than a year ago; and 37 percent say they feel “more negative” now than they did a year ago about Obamacare’s impact on their own health care.
• CMS is delaying the launch of the Physician Payment Sunshine Act website -- which should have been a major points-scored occasion for Obamacare advocates -- because of problems.
• In the words of renowned health care reporter Sarah Kliff, “This graphic really underscores how confusing the *next* Obamacare enrollment period will be.”
• And speaking of the next enrollment period, pundits have been having a field day with rate increases, or the lack thereof, in other states, but we here in Pennsylvania still have no idea what they look like.
• Halbig and King are still, collectively, a lurking presence.
• Speaking of lurking presences, let us not forget about the upcoming tax season.
In other words, I expect the next few months to be interesting. And let us make no final judgments on anything at this time.