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Fed's index augurs weakening Pa. economy

By - Last modified: October 2, 2012 at 10:47 AM

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Pennsylvania might be tipping into recession, according to data released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The commonwealth was one of 15 states for which the Fed’s leading index for August turned negative. Pennsylvania’s leading index was -0.3, which “suggests contraction in the state’s economy into the first quarter of 2013,” the Fed said.

The August numbers follow indexes of -0.4 percent in June and -0.8 percent in July. Those numbers ended a streak of positive indexes in Pennsylvania that ran from October 2009 to May this year.

Nationwide, 35 states logged positive leading indexes; none was unchanged. The index for the U.S. overall was 0.9 percent.

The leading index is an aggregate statistic developed by the Fed and used to forecast growth over the next six months.


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